The denouement is drawing to a close. In a few hours, the identity of the winner of theAmerican presidential election will be known. While we await the outcome of the election, polls offer a glimpse of the final results. But they are not always reliable. In 2016 and 2020, pollsters had indeed failed to measure the Trumpist groundswellby overestimating the “blue wave”.

This year, the polls are more cautious, predicting more than close resultswith a slight lead for Kamala Harris nationally, one point ahead of her Republican rival. Donald Trump is in the lead in the swing states, those key states where the vote varies from one election to the next, and where everything can change. However, the gap with the Vice-President remains very small.

By analyzing the estimates of two different polling aggregators – Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight – we have been able to identify the most important swing states. Le Figaro deciphers the polls…