DECRYPTAGE – Several forecasting models based on political and economic data, developed by American and French researchers, were right about the November 5, 2024 election. We explain.
In the forty years they have been applied to the American presidential election, the econometric predictive models of the Political Forecasting Group have predicted the right winner over 80% of the time. For the November 5, 2024 election, as explained in Le Figaro October 30ththe models were more divided than ever. Five out of thirteen predicted a majority of the popular vote in favor of Donald Trump. And five out of eleven predicted a Trump victory in the Electoral College, with such a lead that, on average, across all models, the Republican candidate garnered 281 electoral votes (for a required majority of 270). This meant that, on average, the models predicted a Trump victory.
Faced with polls that were still giving a very close score between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the models designed and arrested at the end of July tended on average to favor the former president. Some of them…
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