Asian Bouses rose cautiously on Tuesday, November 5, in volatile, wait-and-see markets, with their eyes riveted on the United States just hours before a presidential election whose outcome could shake up the region’s economies.

Cautious rise in Tokyo, session extended

In Tokyo, at around 01:45 GMT, the flagship Nikkei index was up 1.19% at 38,505.63 points, and the broader Topix index up 0.80% at 2,665.20 points, at the end of an extended weekend due to the Monday public holiday.

For the first time in 70 years, the operator of the Tokyo Stock Exchange has changed trading hours: from Tuesday onwards, the session will close at 15:30 local time (06:30 GMT), half an hour later than before, in order to attract more foreign investors. “This extension of trading hours should lead to an increase in volumes (of shares) traded”observed analysts at Tokai Tokyo Securities.

For the time being, the Japanese stock market is moving cautiously upwards, just a few hours before the US election and on the eve of a week rich in corporate earnings releases. “Traders are likely to be faced with a growing sense of paralysis: the market has already seen trading in anticipation of Donald Trump’s victory, and if (his Democratic rival) Kamala Harris had to win, he might be upset.”warn the experts at Tokai Tokyo. The composition of the US Congress – likely to frame or temper the political choices of the future occupant of the White House – will also be scrutinized, they add.

Airlines ANA (-1.37%) and JAL (-1.35%) stumbled together, after posting sharply lower quarterly profits, weighed down by higher fuel costs and the consequences of Boeing’s woes.

Dollar weakens, oil stabilizes

Caution prevailed on the forex market, with traders adjusting their positions in the face of better polls for Kamala Harris, after having long positioned themselves in anticipation of a victory for ex-President Donald Trump – likely to inflate US indebtedness and therefore the country’s bond yields. At around 01:45 GMT, the greenback was weakening, with one dollar trading at 152.35 yen and 0.9193 euro.

For their part, oil prices are catching their breath, stabilizing after surging the previous day in a market boosted by a weakening dollar, threats made by the Iranian authorities against Israel – and above all by a postponement of the OPEC+ alliance’s production increase, likely to limit the available supply of black gold. At around 01:45 a.m., Brent North Sea crude was down 0.11% at $75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was down 0.13% at $71.38 a barrel.

China’s stock markets volatile

China’s markets gained a little ground in volatile trading, as investors waited for a parliamentary session to ratify the details of the economic stimulus plans announced by Beijing – but above all, suspended on the US election. At around 01:45 GMT, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.34% at 3,321.34 points, while the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 0.82% at 2,000.11 points. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 0.27% at 20,622.45 points.

“Both candidates (American presidential) display radically different positions in terms of economic and trade policy: the biggest shock for Asian economies will come from a Trump victory, and his plan to drastically raise tariff barriers.”note analysts at MUFG. However, China, where the economy remains sluggish against the backdrop of a persistent real estate crisis, “would face these new tariffs from a position of weakness”.they stress.