The dollar is reeling this Monday, weighed down by a Kamala Harris surge in US presidential polls released over the weekend, whereas the prospect of a Trump victory had previously buoyed the greenback. At around 10.20am GMT (11.20am in Paris), the US currency was down 0.57% against the euro, at $1.0896, and down 0.35% against the pound, at $1.2970. “The polls released over the weekend have shaken the certainty with which some market players may have been betting on Donald Trump’s victory.”remarked Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank.

In particular, an influential survey by the local daily Des Moines Register gives Kamala Harris the winner in Iowa, a state where her Republican opponent has been victorious in each of the last elections. However, the greenback had previously benefited from market bets on a re-election of the ex-president, who plans to implement “inflationary policies, potentially reducing the ability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.”said Hal Cook, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

The Mexican peso also benefited from Kamala Harris’s improved prospects for victory. It jumped 0.84% against the greenback, to 20.11 pesos to the dollar. During his campaign, Donald Trump had said he was considering introducing tariffs “terrible” in the event of electoral success, to “bring back” companies to the United States. As a result, on Friday the Mexican currency reached its lowest level against the dollar since September 2022, at 20.29 pesos.