Never again. The poor budget revenue forecasts for 2023 which led to the slippage in public finances, increasing the announced deficit from 4.4% to 6.1%, left a deep impression on Bercy. The new team formed by Antoine Armand, Minister of the Economy, and Laurent Saint-Martin, Minister of Public Accounts, therefore decided to put together a “scientific committee” in order to establish a “action plan to avoid repeating the same misadventure of the previous government.

Its members, who were received this Thursday morning by the two ministers, will be working to “improve the quality of macroeconomic forecasts in an evolving context that could justify changes in method”.explains Bercy, and secondly “improve budget monitoring and transparency, starting with parliamentary representatives”..

The committee is made up of nine personalities with “a high level of expertise”. Laurent Bach, professor at Essec and member of the Institut des Politiques Publiques, François Ecalle honorary senior advisor at the Cour des Comptes and founder of the Fipeco website, Olivier Garnier, chief economist at the Banque de France, Camille Landais, deputy chairman of the Conseil d’analyse économique and lecturer at the London School of Economics, Xavier Jaravel, professor at the London School of Economics, Valérie Plagnol, president of Cercle des épargnants, Xavier Ragot, president of OFCE, Ludovic Subran chief economist at Allianz, and Jean-Luc Tavernier, director general of Insee.

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Complementary” work with the IGF

“This committee is one of the milestones in the work carried out by the departments of the two ministries”.. The Inspectorate General of Finance (IGF) has already been tasked with understanding the reasons for such a wide gap (21 billion) between revenue forecasts and reality. According to the IGF, the bulk (80%) of this difference is due to unforeseeable external factors (macroeconomics, behavior of players, etc.). Hence the mission entrusted to the committee to consider forecasting models. “This work is complementary”.we explain.

The other side of the coin – and undoubtedly the most important politically – is transparency. “State expenditure and revenue are monitored on a monthly basis, and the LOLF (Loi organique relative aux lois de finances) provides for very extensive documentation.”we remind you. Faced with these “tens of thousands of pages produced every year”.the ministers want to strengthen the “clarity and “intelligibility” of information. “The committee’s view will be interesting on this last point”.we comment.

If it’s not “in no way calling into question the technical quality of Bercy’s services”.the work will be carried out “without taboos and the scientific committee “will have access to everythingincluding the calculation models that have been so lacking in budget revenue forecasts, we are assured. The conclusions are due in mid-December.