Market trends

The world’s stock markets are being kept on their toes by the US elections. Behind the presidential election, which pits two diametrically opposed camps against each other, there is also the renewal of governors, judges, mayors, a third of the Senate and, above all, the entire House of Representatives. A potential major political upheaval that is making markets cautious and anxious.

Against this backdrop, investors were not inclined to take risks, and the CAC 40 hovered around equilibrium throughout the session. Overall, the Paris Bourse remained in the green, although its flagship index made a few dips into the red. The CAC 40 held its breath at the opening of Wall Street. The upward momentum of the Dow Jones and Nasdaq kept it in positive territory. The day’s trading enabled the CAC 40 to climb back above the 7,400-point threshold, ahead of Wednesday’s session, which could be further affected by events in the US.

Indexes in France and around the world

Fact of the day

This Tuesday, Americans are invited to the polls to choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and the US presidential election is obviously taking center stage in investors’ minds. In one of the closest elections in the country’s history, the latest polls in favor of the Democrat have rekindled the suspense. Indeed, several indicators show that the markets had already predicted the former president’s victory.

In his morning note, Antoine Andreani, market analyst at XTB France, headlined: “The signs of a Trump victory are there”. In particular, he cites the political repositioning of Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Meta (Facebook’s parent company). Usually left-leaning, the billionaire has recently begun to denounce the Biden administration. The analyst points in particular to the Ukrainian president’s change of stance: “If Zelensky is now considering such an agreement [un traité de paix potentiel entre l’Ukraine et la Russie], this could be an implicit recognition of the eventuality of a Trump presidency, one of whose priorities is to quickly end this conflict.”he explains in his note.

In addition to these positions, long-term bond yields have been rising in recent weeks. With the exception of a dip yesterday, they are rising slightly as we await the potential implementation of Donald Trump’s program, which is expected to widen the deficit. Oil has also incorporated a potential Republican victory with the forecast of rising US production. Oil prices are more likely to be on a downward trend. It remains to be seen whether the markets were right to anticipate a return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Stocks in sight

The Top

Bouygues sent reassuring signals to investors before the opening of trading. And they were right to do so, as the stock rose by 3.09%, the biggest gains on the CAC 40. The French construction, media and telecommunications conglomerate announced its quarterly results, with better-than-expected sales. The French group posted a slight increase in sales of 1%, but above all it highlights its full order book: “It stands at a very high level, offering visibility on future business.“according to the press release.

The company’s growth is driven in particular by its construction activities (Bouygues Construction, Colas and Bouygues Immobilier), but especially by Equans. Bouygues took advantage of this publication to announce that its Travaux Publics subsidiary had won a highway contract in Australia. For its part, Bouygues Telecom has obtained SFR’s agreement to finalize the purchase of La Poste Telecom “before the end of the year. In other news that relieved investors, the Group confirmed its annual forecasts for sales and operating income of “slightly up on 2023”.

The Flop

Viridian is still reeling from its disappointing quarterly results. Since their publication at the close of last Thursday’s trading session, the supplier of services to oil and gas companies has fallen steadily. Today’s session was no exception, with a drop of 3.4%. Formerly CGG, the company posted a 3% drop in sales. It can take comfort in the fact that Ebitda was more favorable. It amounted to $298 million for the first nine months of 2024, up 7% year-on-year.

Despite the confirmation of annual targets, investors are not convinced by the outlook. During the results presentation, management also announced negotiations with employee representatives at its Sercel subsidiary. Viridien intends to implement a restructuring plan involving 91 voluntary redundancies at the seismic equipment specialist’s French sites.

Quote of the day

“I want to know what these groups did with the public money they were given. I want to know. And so we’re going to ask questions and we’re going to see whether this money has been well or badly used so that we can learn from it.”

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier reacted on Tuesday to the job cuts announced by Auchan and Michelin. The French tire manufacturer is set to close its Cholet and Vannes sites in 2026, threatening 1,254 jobs. In response, Cholet employees voted to go on strike. For its part, the multinational retailer has presented a redundancy plan which envisages the loss of 2,389 jobs in France.

Wednesday November 6 agenda

Wednesday’s trading session is likely to follow news from the other side of the Atlantic. After today’s American presidential election vote, the first indications, or even the results, could be known during tomorrow’s session. Aside from this outcome, there will also be plenty of company news. In France, quarterly results from Teleperformance, Crédit Agricole and Beneteau. Abroad, big names such as Honda, Toyota, BMW, UniCredit and Novo Nordisk are also expected.

Editorial recommendation

Schneider Electric took the decision on Monday to dismiss Peter Herweck, who has been CEO for the past 18 months. The energy systems specialist points to “disagreements” with the company’s roadmap. He has been replaced by Olivier Blum. After this surprising decision, what should we do with the stock? Find out more about Schneider Electric.