Since last Tuesday, Europeans have been swearing that they will redouble their efforts to compensate for the expected withdrawal of the United States, but few will be going to Baku. Neither Emmanuel Macron nor Olaf Scholz will be attending the summit of some 100 leaders on Tuesday and Wednesday.
The 29th UN climate conference opened in Azerbaijan on Monday. with a call for global cooperation, six days after Donald Trump’s re-electionat a time when hundreds of billions of dollars in aid are being demanded by developing countries. “It’s time to show that global cooperation is not at a standstill. It’s up to the moment”.UN Climate boss Simon Stiell opened the huge conference in Baku, on the shores of the Caspian Sea, without ever mentioning the country whose name is on everyone’s lips: the United States.
The main issue at stake at this COP, which will last until November 22, is to set the amount of climate aid from developed countries to developing countries, so that they can develop without coal or oil, and cope with more heatwaves and floods. Currently 116 billion dollars a year (by 2022), the poor countries are calling for the new commitment to be in the trillions annually. But Westerners consider this order of magnitude unrealistic for their public finances.
COP29 President Moukhtar Babaïev spoke of “hundreds of billions” in his opening speech on Monday, but none of the negotiators revealed their cards. Delegates negotiated until 4 a.m. on Sunday night. “COP29 is a moment of truth for the Paris Agreement”said Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and a former executive of the national oil company Socar.
Big absentees
It will only take one signature for Donald Trump, on entering the White House on January 20, to join Iran, Yemen and Libya outside the text adopted by the world’s countries in 2015. The agreement is the driving force behind curbing the global warming trajectory over the past ten years to around 3°C or less by 2100, according to calculations. The text commits the world to limiting global warming to 2°C and to continuing efforts to contain it to 1.5°C, compared with the end of the 19th century. The year 2024, which will be a torrential one for many countries, will almost certainly be at this level. If this continues over the long term, the climate limit will be considered reached.
Since last Tuesday, Europeans have been swearing that they will redouble their efforts to compensate for the US withdrawal, but few will be going to Baku. Neither Emmanuel Macron nor Olaf Scholz will be attending the summit of some 100 leaders on Tuesday and Wednesday. “Everyone knows these negotiations won’t be easy”said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. Brazil’s Lula, host of next year’s COP30, is also absent. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro has cancelled due to flooding in his country, and the Dutch Prime Minister after violence against Israeli citizens in Amsterdam. But the Taliban sent a delegation.
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Some 51,000 participants are accredited, according to UN Climate, fewer than at last year’s extravagant COP28 in Dubai. Many NGOs are also critical of the conference being held in a country that celebrates oil, and where the authorities are pursuing and have arrested several environmental activists.
The Paris agreement commits the world to limiting global warming to 2°C and to continuing efforts to keep it at 1.5°C, compared with the end of the 19th century. The year 2024, which will be torrential for many countries, will almost certainly be at this level. If this continues over the long term, the climate limit will be deemed to have been reached. Uganda’s Adonia Ayebare, president of the G77+China negotiating bloc for developing countries, warns that the two-week negotiations will be tough on the main issue at stake at this COP: how many billions in climate aid will the rich countries be willing to commit to? “As soon as we talk about money, everyone shows their true colours”.confided the diplomat to AFP.
“Put money on the table”.
15 years ago, during the COP fiasco in Copenhagen, developed countries saved the day by pledging $100 billion in annual aid to developing countries by 2020. This money, mostly in the form of loans, is used to build solar power plants, improve irrigation, build dykes or help farmers cope with droughts. The time has come to increase this North-South aid, but by how much?
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“Put money on the table to show leadership”.the negotiator for the 45 least-developed countries, Evans Njewa of Malawi, told AFP, addressing the Europeans in particular. But the mood in the rich countries is one of austerity (in Europe) or international disengagement (in the United States). Many are calling on China and the Gulf States to contribute more. To which the Chinese negotiator replied that there was no question of “renegotiate” UN texts, which clearly stipulate that only developed countries, according to an old UN definition, are obliged to pay.
Sensitive to Western reluctance, UN Climate boss Simon Stiell stresses that it is in their interest to pay more to save the climate: “No economy, not even those of the G20, will survive unbridled global warming, and no household will escape the severe inflation that will follow.”. But only four G20 leaders had confirmed their presence in Baku by Sunday evening (UK, Italy, Turkey, Saudi Arabia).