The year 2024 will almost certainly be the hottest year on record, and the first with an increase of global average temperature by 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period, according to data from the European Copernicus service published after the second-warmest month of October. “After 10 months of 2024, it is now almost certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record and the first year with more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”according to Copernicus’ ERA5 database, commented Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus’ Climate Change Service (C3S), on Thursday. It is even “likely” that warming exceeded 1.55°C during the calendar year, according to Copernicus.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a trigger to raise ambition at the next climate change conference, COP29.”stressed Samantha Burgess. This COP, which opens on November 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be devoted to the delicate search for a new financing target to enable developing countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. It will also be held in the shadow of the imminent return to the American presidency of Donald Trump, who has in the past referred to climate change as “the greatest threat to our planet”. “hoax”.

A period of 20 to 30 years

According to Copernicus, October was the second hottest month in the world, after October 2023, with an average temperature of 15.25°C. This is 1.65°C higher than the pre-industrial levels of 1850-1900, before the massive use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) significantly warmed the atmosphere and oceans. It is also the 15th month in a 16-month period that the average temperature has risen above 1.5°C.

This symbolic figure corresponds to the most ambitious limit of the 2015 Paris Agreement, aimed at containing warming well below 2°C and continuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, this historic agreement refers to long-term climate trends: the average will have to remain above 1.5°C warming for 20 to 30 years for the limit to be considered crossed.

Towards 2.6°C of warming

According to the latest UN calculations, however, the world is not at all on track to meet this limit, which would make it possible to avoid even more catastrophic effects of climate change, such as droughts, heatwaves and torrential rains. Current policies would lead to global warming “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C this century, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). And even with all the promises to do better, the average global temperature would rise by 2.6°C.

The deadly effects of global warming were recently illustrated once again by the floods in southern Spain, which killed over 200 people, the vast majority of them women. in the Valencia region. Copernicus notes that precipitation was above average in October not only on the Iberian Peninsula, but also in France, northern Italy and Norway. Scientists agree that over most of the planet, extreme precipitation events have become more frequent and more intense as a result of climate change.