Two rooms, two atmospheres. The European Commission published its public deficit and growth forecasts for the eurozone and France on Friday November 15. And Brussels’ forecasts don’t really match those of Paris.

While the Barnier government is forecasting growth of 1.1% for 2025, the European Commission anticipates an increase of just 0.8%. The same divergence applies to the public deficit. Whereas Economy Minister Antoine Armand had presented a medium-term budget plan that forecast a deficit of 6.1% of GDP in 2024, then 5% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, Brussels is forecasting a French public deficit of 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, then 5.3% and 5.4% in subsequent years.

Excessive deficit procedure

Asked at a press conference about the discrepancy between France’s two public deficit trajectories, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni acknowledged that there was an excessive deficit in France. “small gap” of 0.3 points in the forecast for next year. “The reason for this difference lies in our assessment of a greater impact of the measures taken to reduce the level of the deficit.”he said, suggesting that cost-cutting measures would reduce growth and, in turn, tax revenues. “But of course, we fully understand and support this approach.” of fiscal consolidation, he stressed. He also explained the forecast deviation by a less favorable estimate by the Commission on “interest rate costs”. of French debt.

On November 26, the European Commission is due to present its assessment of the medium-term budget plans of European Union countries. Since the end of July, France, along with six other member states, has been the subject of a European procedure for excessive deficits. Last year, these countries exceeded the public deficit limit set at 3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the Stability Pact, which also limits debt to 60% of GDP. They must take corrective measures to comply with EU budgetary rules in the future, or face financial sanctions. The public deficit for the eurozone as a whole should fall to 3% this year, according to Commission forecasts, which predict 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 for the bloc of 20 countries sharing the single currency.